Friday, February 15, 2008

SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS

Think About It
Let’s talk about CFIUS (pronounced sifius). No it is not a sexually transmitted disease. It is a committee that is supposed to protect your national interests---The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. Chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury, it includes members from Defense, State, Commerce and Homeland Security. Started by President Ford, its objective is to approve or disapprove the acquisition of US companies by foreigners. Companies proposing to be acquired by foreigners are supposed to voluntarily notify CFIUS, but CFIUS has the power to review any of which they become aware. The problem is, they have not seen many foreign acquisitions which they did not like.
Remember 2006, when Dubai Ports World proposed to buy P & O, a British company which was the 4th largest in the world, and operated at least 6 United States Ports? This transaction had already been vetted and approved by CFIUS when it became public knowledge. There was such a national uproar that our ever alert Congressmen and women decided to jump into action. On February 22, President Bush threatened to veto any action by Congress to block the deal. Up until then, he had not used his veto even once. On February 23, DP World volunteered to postpone its takeover while President Bush tried to convince lawmakers the deal involved no risk. On March 9, DP World said it would transfer its operations to a “US owned entity” after Congress told Bush the deal was dead on Capitol Hill. On March 16, the House added provisions to an appropriations bill to stop the sale. The Senate cut the provisions, and the bill was finally approved by both houses without any prohibitions. On July 18, 2006, Congressman John Murtha (D-PA) pointed out that our free trade agreement with the nation of Oman would allow Dubai to set up an Oman subsidiary and sue for compensation under free trade if such an Oman/Dubai deal was blocked. No one contradicted him. On December 11, Dubai finally reported they were selling the US port operations to American International Group’s asset management division. Hopefully it happened. You can’t prove it by me.
I point all this out to bring up a discussion of Sovereign Wealth Funds. These are cash asset funds actually owned by the governments of foreign countries, not by foreign private investors. As long as we have had US Hedge Funds, their assets amount to only $1.7 trillion. But these sovereign government directed funds have already grown to $2.8 trillion. Our own Morgan-Stanley brokerage firm predicts such funds will reach $12 trillion by the year 2015; almost the size of our total economy. In size of assets, the first 6 are the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Norway, Kuwait, Russia and China. And you wonder where all our US dollars are going? Since May, 2007, over $20 billion of our trade deficit came back through foreigners to rescue our biggest Wall Street brokers, by buying equity ownership.
There are free-traders on both sides of the aisle in our Congress who don’t care what smell money has, as long as its color is green. I repeat my charge---we are being sold out, lock, stock and barrel, and they are using our own money to buy us. Because we are no longer a producer, and because our insatiable energy demand exceeds our domestic supply, we are their willing victims. This all started about 30 years ago, when Japan, flush with cash, began to buy up some of our prized real estate. Now, foreigners are not just buying real estate, they are buying our domestic corporations. Some day, we are going to wake up and realize that we are the vassals of foreigners.
Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) rightly warns that when Sovereign funds approach the size of the entire American economy in a few years, the lack of regulation is a huge risk this country cannot continue to run. Sovereign nations have interests other than maximizing profits, and we must promulgate rules to protect our own self-interests.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

ECONOMICS

Think About It
To paraphrase Charles Dickens: “It is the best of times, it is the worst of times.” Last year, our stock market reached an all time high, while our dollar has reached a new low against the Euro, which now costs $1.46 American. Our bull market, which is down 8% year to date, is effectively supported by foreigners, who are buying us out, lock, stock and barrel. According to the U S Treasury, net overall capital inflows into the United States are rising over $100 Billion per month, with corporate bond and equity purchases driving foreign investments to a record high. Meanwhile our Federal debt is growing nearly $1.5 billion per day. In July, the Treasury Secretary asked Congress to raise the debt limit to $ 9.82 trillion, as I had predicted months ago. This is the fifth raise of the Bush administration. The result is that we have now become dependent on foreigners to buy our corporate stock and underwrite our debt.
Using 1985 as a base, outside world holding of U. S. financial assets has increased from $1 Trillion to $13 Trillion today. Worldwide, the dollar is considered extremely cheap, thanks to the Federal Reserve, which has seriously inflated the currency. As noted before, the Fed has even quit publishing M3, which is the most accurate measure of inflation. (You can keep up with an estimated M3 by going to www.shadowstats.com.) The downside of this is that the real value of our wealth in dollars has fallen dramatically. Yet, we are in a tenuous position. If we move to strengthen the dollar, it will likely scare away some of this foreign inflow of capital.
Now, the BLS January 2008 unemployment report shows the U S economy is slowing. Payroll employment has lost 17,000 jobs over the past month. Unemployment stands at 4.9%. And remember, it is consumer spending which now accounts for nearly 70% of our total output of goods and services; while only 60 years ago, we were the leading producer for the world. But consumer debt is reaching an all time high. Consumers have been using borrowed home equity, and are nearly spent out. Now home values have been falling for the past 3 months, and the sub-prime mortgage debacle is still growing.
The Clinton administration changed the criteria for calculating inflation, and the Bush administration heartily endorsed it and followed suit. While government figures show inflation at some 2%, it is under the old formula more like 6%. Why? With a low inflation rate reflected in the CPI, our U S government saves billions of dollars on interest and Social Security payments. Meanwhile, we, as citizens, are left to deal with the real inflation.
At the same time, foreign central banks, corporations and individuals are diversifying their cash reserves out of the dollar and into the Euro. This adds to the dollar’s decline. Now certain oil producers are demanding payment in Euros. We are no longer universally recognized as the world’s reserve currency, a position we had held since World War II. This drains our diplomatic, economic and financial power.
Things can’t be fixed overnight. It will take real fiscal prudence and a lot of belt tightening on the part of everyone, first and foremost our government. There will be a Presidential election next year, with the largest number of potential candidates in recent history. Don’t fall for the man or woman who promises you more out of your government. It is an outright lie which they cannot deliver, and will cost you directly in your pocketbook. Look, instead to the man or woman who acknowledges the government is not our daddy, and is not totally responsible for our upkeep and wellbeing. We of all people deserve to be the most hated if we leave this burden upon our children and grandchildren, who for the most part look up to and respect us. We must develop and demonstrate the courage of our founding fathers.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

SUPER TUESDAY-SUPER DELEGATES

Think About It

Super Tuesday is over, who do you think is the happiest camper in America?
Bill Clinton. The man who became our President with only 43% of the popular vote, (remember Ross Perot and his groupies?) is edging ever closer to becoming the “first man” at the Clinton White House No. 2. Why? Two words: Super-delegates! Go back to 1968. The Democrat Party saw itself fall apart in disgrace in Chicago on public television. In the early 1970’s, the party’s rules were changed to allow more activists, women and minorities into the process. The Problem: How do we keep the loyalty of all these special interest groups (women, Latinos, gays, African-Americans, tree-huggers) without actually giving them control of the party? The answer: Super-delegates, 842 of them, 40% of the number needed to secure a nomination. Who are they? Democrat former Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Governors, DNC members, among some others. Let the various special interests have their say with their buzz-words: “Hope, change, united, health care.” But when it’s all over, the power to broker a back room deal is in the hand of 842 un-pledged delegates who are free to vote as they please. And who better to broker a back room deal than the Clintons?

And who is the second happiest camper in America? Irving Kristol, self-confessed “Godfather” of the neo-conservative camp within the Republican Party, and best friend of the military-industrial complex, which Dwight Eisenhower warned us about 48 years ago. The Republican Party has no such Super-delegates. The neo-con’s problem? How do we keep the conservative base loyal to a moderate (?) Republican like John “We may be in Iraq for 100 years” or “Don’t tell me about border security, I know more than anybody in this room” McCain. He barely won his own state, Arizona, in the primary. The answer is simple. Split the conservative vote. Bring in someone---Governor Huckabee---to siphon off the right wing evangelicals: “That man is a Mormon”; who want a theocracy (just somewhat short of the one in Iran.) Author’s disclaimer: I consider myself an evangelical Christian, and I do believe Huckabee is a good man who truly wants to be President. But I am also a pragmatic politico. Where else can the conservative go in November? He/she is neither going across to vote for another Clinton, nor for the most liberal member of the US Senate. So the neo-cons are betting on their best chance to preserve the status-quo with John McCain, and potential running mate Huckabee. The problem is that McCain’s strong states in the primary are those he will lose to a Democrat in November. Regardless, the average American is so disgusted with the Bush administration, any Republican will fight an uphill battle.

I am reminded of the sputtering start of the Reagan revolution. Many of us who believed in his principles gathered around him in 1976, even though he was trying to take the nomination from a decent (but moderate) sitting Republican president (although he had not been elected so.) The incumbency won Ford the nomination, but inflation and a smiling peanut broker cost him the election. Four years later, a charismatic Reagan re-appeared to win the election and change world history in a way that happens but once in a lifetime. I formerly had a partner who used to say:"The wheel keeps turning." I refer to his quote to support my thesis: If not for Watergate, there would have been no Jimmy Carter, but if not for Jimmy Carter, there would have been no Ronald Reagan. Things seem to work out in the end for those who have faith. Mitt is young, he can wait.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

RECESSION

Think About It

It’s time to build up your cash. As I predicted earlier, foreign nationals are buying us out, lock stock and barrel. Because of the sub-prime mortgage debacle, Morgan-Stanley has sold a $5 billion stake to Chinese interests. Merrill Lynch, likewise, sold $6.2 billion equity to Singapore interests. Recently Citigroup sold a $7.5 billion interest to Middle Eastern country Abu Dhabi. These interests are selling us more in petroleum or consumer goods than we can export to them, and using the surplus of our own money to purchase our country.

We were the world’s leading producer country from the time of the Second World War to the middle 1960’s. Since then, we have become the world’s leading consumer, and it is the consumer spender who has kept our economy afloat, making up a staggering 71% of our gross domestic product. Too much of this spending has been done through plastic credit cards. For many years, the increase in home values enabled consumers to pay off staggering credit card balances through increasing their home equity debt. Now, because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis, decreasing home values largely block this method of rescue. As a result, credit card accounts which are 30 days behind has jumped 26% to $17.3 billion. Those 90 days behind have jumped 50% over one year ago. Actual defaults have risen 18% to almost $961 million, according to the SEC.

The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index, and Leading Economic Indicators, in an effort to predict the future economy. Usually, 3 consecutive months in the negative indicates a coming recession. October and November were both negative. When the 6 months cumulative total goes below a -1%, this also indicates recession. The 6 months cumulative total for November was -1.2%. Unless Santa Claus spends himself crazy for December, the future looks grim.

Does any of this interest you, or are you more concerned about who wins “Dancing with the Stars, or who is victorious in the Super Bowl? Our forefathers established and left us the greatest country in world history. Most of us have children or grandchildren who must look to us for their legacy. Are we going to fail them? When in 2000, the US voted 46% of the eligible population, we ranked about 139th out of 171 countries. Australia voted closer to 95%.

If you don’t vote, you have no right to complain. But worse than that, you will have no place to look for economic rescue. We must return this country to its founding principles. Next year is a presidential election year. Casting an ignorant vote is as bad as not voting. You have plenty of time to do an in depth study of all the eligible candidates. I urge you to get busy.

OIL RESERVES

Think About It
Aggravated that the price of gasoline is running a below peak price of $2.82 per gallon but still an average fill-up is about $50? The threat of a global recession has brought crude oil down from $100, to about $90 a barrel, temporarily. But we need to realize the problem is much more than price gouging. The United States needs to invest more money in becoming energy independent, and less on trying to establish democracies around the world.
In the 70’s, when our Alaska slope oil was discovered, we had 39 billion barrels of US oil reserve un-pumped, and in 2006, we were down to 21 billion barrels of reserve. In 1970, we produced a total of 3.5 billion barrels; while in 2006, we produced a total of only 1.8 billion barrels. In 30 years, our internal production was down by 50%. At the same time our consumption was up to 7.3 billion barrels annually. The net difference, 5.5 billion barrels, was imported. We seemed to have a policy of trying to sit on our oil, as long as we could buy worldwide. Apparently someone had conjectured that the barrel price would never surpass the $30-$50 range. It costs us something like $10 a barrel to pump oil out of the ground. According to the US Department of Energy, our 2007 oil consumption was predicted to be 20.9 million barrels per day, while production would fall to 5.1 million barrels per day. That means consumption is now 4 times production, and yet we have only about 12 years of domestic crude production left. What then? While protecting the environment, which we can do, it is extremely essential we start to drill in the Alaska Wildlife Refuge, and in all known coastal resources.
But even that is not enough to achieve long time independence. Fortunately, the US has the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world, 2,500 billion potential barrels, enough to meet our current demands internally for 110 years. Unfortunately, oil from shale currently must be produced by mining, not drilling, and is much more expensive. There is current research being done on using carbon dioxide, of which we produce too much, as a catalyst to release the oil more efficiently. Also being studied is a method of freezing a donut ring in the earth, within which steam is pumped under high pressure, helping release the oil with less danger to the environment. It is called In-situ Conversion process, or ICP. If we direct the time, money and talent to this project that we invested in a moon landing, instead of a new moon landing, we could probably succeed within 10 years, as we did before.
Our good neighbor, Canada, which is actually our major single source of petroleum imports, (8.5 million barrels annually) has one of the largest world deposits of oil sand (tarry sand), 265 billion barrels. Canada, our ally, and Venezuela, our antagonist, each control about 1/3 of the world supply of oil sands. Oil sand is much less expensive to convert than oil shale. To put it into perspective, Canada now ranks 3rd in worldwide oil production, and has 174 billion barrels of recoverable oil in oil sands, while Saudi Arabia has only 260 billion barrels of traditional oil reserve.
What is Congress’ solution? In December, they passed legislation mandating that auto manufacturers increase their Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards to 35 mpg by 2020. This means that the average mileage of all the cars they offer must be 35 mpg. Don’t you wish you could solve all your own problems by ordering some one else to engineer a quick fix? It is high time that we citizens educate ourselves to our nation’s problems and demand that our Congress address them with a righteous determination to solve them proficiently.