SUPER TUESDAY-SUPER DELEGATES

Think About It

Super Tuesday is over, who do you think is the happiest camper in America?
Bill Clinton. The man who became our President with only 43% of the popular vote, (remember Ross Perot and his groupies?) is edging ever closer to becoming the “first man” at the Clinton White House No. 2. Why? Two words: Super-delegates! Go back to 1968. The Democrat Party saw itself fall apart in disgrace in Chicago on public television. In the early 1970’s, the party’s rules were changed to allow more activists, women and minorities into the process. The Problem: How do we keep the loyalty of all these special interest groups (women, Latinos, gays, African-Americans, tree-huggers) without actually giving them control of the party? The answer: Super-delegates, 842 of them, 40% of the number needed to secure a nomination. Who are they? Democrat former Presidents, Vice-Presidents, Governors, DNC members, among some others. Let the various special interests have their say with their buzz-words: “Hope, change, united, health care.” But when it’s all over, the power to broker a back room deal is in the hand of 842 un-pledged delegates who are free to vote as they please. And who better to broker a back room deal than the Clintons?

And who is the second happiest camper in America? Irving Kristol, self-confessed “Godfather” of the neo-conservative camp within the Republican Party, and best friend of the military-industrial complex, which Dwight Eisenhower warned us about 48 years ago. The Republican Party has no such Super-delegates. The neo-con’s problem? How do we keep the conservative base loyal to a moderate (?) Republican like John “We may be in Iraq for 100 years” or “Don’t tell me about border security, I know more than anybody in this room” McCain. He barely won his own state, Arizona, in the primary. The answer is simple. Split the conservative vote. Bring in someone---Governor Huckabee---to siphon off the right wing evangelicals: “That man is a Mormon”; who want a theocracy (just somewhat short of the one in Iran.) Author’s disclaimer: I consider myself an evangelical Christian, and I do believe Huckabee is a good man who truly wants to be President. But I am also a pragmatic politico. Where else can the conservative go in November? He/she is neither going across to vote for another Clinton, nor for the most liberal member of the US Senate. So the neo-cons are betting on their best chance to preserve the status-quo with John McCain, and potential running mate Huckabee. The problem is that McCain’s strong states in the primary are those he will lose to a Democrat in November. Regardless, the average American is so disgusted with the Bush administration, any Republican will fight an uphill battle.

I am reminded of the sputtering start of the Reagan revolution. Many of us who believed in his principles gathered around him in 1976, even though he was trying to take the nomination from a decent (but moderate) sitting Republican president (although he had not been elected so.) The incumbency won Ford the nomination, but inflation and a smiling peanut broker cost him the election. Four years later, a charismatic Reagan re-appeared to win the election and change world history in a way that happens but once in a lifetime. I formerly had a partner who used to say:"The wheel keeps turning." I refer to his quote to support my thesis: If not for Watergate, there would have been no Jimmy Carter, but if not for Jimmy Carter, there would have been no Ronald Reagan. Things seem to work out in the end for those who have faith. Mitt is young, he can wait.